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The End of Oil
(Preliminary Material)
- Books
- Books I've read and other books I still intend to read to try to puzzle out what one should think
- Websites
- Various relevant websites (which, of course, link to yet other websites -- and so ad infinitum)
- Facts and Definitions (separate page)
- Trying to gather a consensus as to what the facts are and what the different terms mean -- though there's so much variation in opinion and usage that it's not easy
- Books read:
- The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century (Atlantic Monthly Press: New York, 2005 hardcover: ISBN 0871138883) by James Howard Kunstler
- This is an important and very disturbing book -- I've just finished reading
- A few of my friends quibble with a few of Kunstler's points -- but not the main issues. Some of the quibbles are:
- his too quick dismissal of coal (when clean coal technology surely offers some time for making other changes -- though it doesn't stop CO2),
- his too quick dismissal of breeder reactors, which, although halted in most countries, my nuclear friends tell me will have to be revisited, and
- from my point of view, too quickly dismissing fuel-cells (admittedly hydrogen presents problems but I am hopeful that zinc-air fuel-cells, as being developed by PowerZinc in California and Shanghai may overcome them).
- I've just ordered and am about to read 10 the other books on this same subject listed below -- from a collection of authors who are a mix of journalists, academics, financial analysts, geologists, oil co executives, investment bankers, environmental researchers. Hopefully, these differing perspectives will cancel out any individual blindspots. I'd like to end up in a position that can't be dismissed as one person's biased perspective.
- It seems to me some things can be done. But it's got to start with a dramatic raising of public consciousness, which now seems to be in denial.
- Here are the preliminary and disturbing conclusions I've drawn from this book (before reading the other 10 listed below.
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- Books still to read:
- The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World (Bloomsbury: 2005 paperback: ISBN 0618562117 -- hardcover was 2004) by Paul Roberts -- (a well-travelled journalist who has done his homework)
- Out of Gas: All You Need to Know about the End of the Age of Oil (Norton: 2005 paperback: ISBN 0393326470) by David Goodstein -- (a physics prof at Caltech)
- The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis (Warner Books: 2005 paperback: ISBN 0446694061) by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb (President of Leeb Capital Management)
- Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (Douglas & McIntyre: 2005 hardcover: ISBN 0809029561) by Kenneth Deffeyes (formerly a Shell Oil geologist, now Prof Emeritus at Princeton)
- The Coming Oil Crisis (Multi-Science Publishing: 2004 paperback: ISBN 0906522110) by Colin Campbell (Oxford PhD, then geologist and major oil co exec -- also a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in London
- .Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (John Wiley & Sons: 2005 hardcover: ISBN 047173876X) by Matthew R. Simmons (founder of Simmons & Co Intl, investment bankers to the energy industry)
- Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (Consortium Book Sales: 2004 paperback: ISBN 0865715106) by Richard Heinberg (on faculty of New College of California at Santa Rosa -- studying culture, ecology, and sustainable community)
- Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum (Henry Holt: 2005 paperback: ISBN 0805079386) by Michael T. Klare (prof of international affairs at U of Massachusetts and elsewhere)
- High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis (Chelsea Green Publishing: 2004 paperback: ISBN 1931498539) by Julian Darley (a British environmental researcher, living in Vancouver)
- Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties (MIT Press: 2005 paperback: ISBN 0262693240) by Vaclav Smil (prof at U of Manitoba, studying environment, energy, food, population, policy studies, etc. -- also re China)
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- The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
- a UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem -- its trustees include Colin Campbell (see above) and its advisors include Matthew Simmons (see above)
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO)
- founder by Colin Campbell (see above) and Kjell Akleklett
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA(ASPO-USA)
- founded by Steve Andrews, Jim Baldauf, Ronald Cooke, Richard Lawrence, & Randy Udall
- Sprott's Peak Oil Watch (by Sprott Asset Management) (thanks to Elgin Horton for this reference)
- a page of "Energy Headlines" and "Sprott's Energy Market Outlook" -- in addition there are: a list of Recommended Reading (mostly, but not entirely, the same books as listed above) and an interesting Why Did We Create This Web Page containing the sentence: "We believe that the Peak Oil problem is severely underestimated by the world today and will ultimately lead to a global energy crisis."
- New York Times Article Sep 10/05 "On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren't Scarce" (thanks to my nephew-in-law Ralf Pohlak for the reference)
- Quotes a bunch of widely divergent opinions:
- Among the "peakists":
- T. Boone Pickens (geologist and founder of Mesa Petroleum): "We're halfway through the hydrocarbon era" [RJA comment: halfway through in terms of the midpoint of depletion -- as Kunstler argues -- but far more than half way in terms of elapsed time!] -- says: "The world produces about 85 million barrels a day. That's where demand is now, too. And I've seen forecasts that demand is
going to be higher than that by the end of the year." -- and "Refineries were operating at 96%" because 'no new refineries have been built in the United
States for some 30 years' -- the pessimists believe that it is going to be
increasingly difficult to replace the oil that we're now using up. "Let me
give you a number that is pretty shocking when you hear it," Mr. Pickens
said. "The world uses 30 billion barrels of oil a year. There is no way
we're replacing 30 billion barrels of oil. Just a million barrels a day is
1,000 wells producing 1,000 barrels. That's big."
- The best-known "peakist" these days is Matthew R. Simmons -- "energy demand is about to exceed supply significantly" -- "we are in a serious energy crisis" -- "These economists are so smug," he [Simmons] said derisively. "All they talk about is the magic of the free market. They don't seem to understand that this is incredibly capital intensive." -- He pointed to those Canadian oil sands - where, he said, Shell Canada recently announced it was going to raise its investment to $7.3 billion from $4 billion to produce an additional 100,000 barrels a day. "Just think about that; $3.3 billion for just 100,000 barrels," he said. "Doesn't that tell you something?"
- Chevron is "taking the peakist view"
- Among the optimists:
- Daniel Yergin, author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, a history of oil that won the 1992 Pulitzer Prize, and "the founder of a rather sizable consulting firm, Cambridge Energy Research Associates" -- "His firm released a survey a few months ago that says from 2004 to 2010, world oil supplies will have increased by as much as 16 million barrels a day" -- "The 16 million barrels a day of new oil Mr. Yergin
expects to see by 2010, he told me [NY Times], 'is predicated on $25-to-$30 oil.' If oil stays higher than that, then there will be even more investment, and not just in ways to extract oil, but in new refineries and pipelines and other infrastructure.
- Exxon Mobil is "more aligned with the Yergin camp"
- energy consultant Michael C. Lynch -- "By most estimates," he added, "total global resources is 8 trillion barrels of oil. They are saying only a small percentage of that is recoverable, and you can't do anything about it. We are saying the amount that is recoverable expands over time."
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- Die-Off website
- This website is predicated on the possible worst-case scenario that ('the industrial age is terminal and presages the imminent extinction of the human race'
- However, note their Thomas Hardy quote at the start: "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst."
- There is a wealth of material on this website that's well worth looking at.
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- Environmentalists for Nuclear Energy (EFN)
- President is Dr. Bruno Comby (who was born in France, currently lives in France, but spent his childhood in Calgary, Alberta, Canada). His 1996 book, Environmentalists for Nuclear Energy is what launched the formation of EFN.
- The history of the formation of EFN is interesting. "Bruno Comby's communication about the environmental benefits of nuclear energy for the environment resulted in a large pro-nuclear movement which grew rapidly, to the point where the association and its president became the object of threats, insults, anonymous phone calls, as well as direct and indirect attacks from the part of anti-nuclear associations, not always of a peaceful nature, rather surprising coming from individuals and groups whose anti-nuclear views are said to be based in their professed concern for peace. The positive side of the story is that people grew rapidly and became an international association to promote nuclear energy for a better and cleaner planet."
- The international organization's membership is about 7,000, including 50 countries on all 5 continents -- with supporters in most States in the U.S. and most Provinces in Canada.
- Dr. James Lovelock (the British scientist of the Gaia Hypothesis fame) is an honorary member of EFN and wrote a wonderful, thought-provoking Introduction to Bruno Combo's book.
- EFN-USA
- President is Berol Robinson
- "At the end of 2002, some American members of EFN decided to create EFN-USA as a new organization in North America. Benefiting from the experience of EFN-International previously based in France, the new EFN-USA association (North American sister organization of EFN) was launched in February 2004."
- I joined EFN-USA as an "active member" and signed their petition -- but that was because we had not yet founded EFN-CANADA (see below)
- EFN-CANADA
This has just recently been formed (as a federally incorporated not-for-profit environmental organization).
- We received our letters patent on Feb 14/06 and held our very first organizational meeting (by teleconference) on Feb 20/06.
- We are now seeking members to join with us.
- I seem to be the initial President but we have 10 dedicated Directors including Dr. Patrick Moore (the founder of Greenpeace) as our honorary chair.
- Dr. James Lovelock (see note above) is an Honorary Member (as he is of all the EFN organizations internationally)
- This is the letter I sent out to friends -- hoping that some will join us as members.
- For more information about EFN-CANADA see our official website and also our EFN Links page.
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- BP Global
- One of the world's biggest energy companies (newly transformed from being exclusively an oil company).
- A typical jumping off point for "an ocean of info they present" (thanks to a friend, Rob Burton, for the reference)
- A physicsweb webpage on laser fusion possibilities
- Thanks to Rob Burton for this reference as well. This is an alternative to the ITER project's planned "magnetic confinement" -- using, instead, laser or ion beams for "inertial confinement" -- but the issue remains how soon? -- they talk about starting construction about the end of the decade -- but does this mean final commercializable design or initial prototype research? -- ITER talked about commercialization by 2050 (which is too late for the oil crisis) -- will the new "HiPER" commercialization be faster? -- the article really doesn't say (but I guess there's some hope)
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- PowerSwitch.org.uk
- the website opf an organization formed in autumn 2004 and "dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply, the consequences of which will affect every corner of our lives" -- while it is focused on the UK, it contains information and references useful to anyone living anywhere
- .FromTheWilderness.com
- A publication (both printed and on-line) edited and published by Michael Ruppert -- they say that "FTW is now read by more than 20,000 subscribers in 40 countries including 40 members of the US Congress and professors at 30 universities around the world." -- I've just subscribed to the on-line edition myself (US$50/yr)
- as I mention in Thoughts on The Long Emergency
- Kunstler argues that we must move to intensely and increasingly local communities (with walkable neighbourhoods)
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- the Set America Free movment).
- based on using existing technology for massive converting to hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and flexible fuel vehicles
- France's MDI Air Car Project
- an amazing concept involving cars run on compressed air -- but I don't know what the timing for, say, manufacturing in North Americal might be -- thanks to Thad Trenn for this reference
- electrifying our railroads
- an obvious strategy but I don't yet have a web reference for this
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http://www.rodmer.com/SwallowHill/LookingInto/EndOfOil.html -- Revised Oct 22, 2006
Copyright © 2005-2006 Merike Lugus and Rod Anderson
rod@rodmer.com